Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cincinnati 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	21:40	Laola1
Germany	21:40	Laola1


	Tommy Paul		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	1.62	2.30	Watch
	1.60	2.35
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.63	2.44
	1.61	2.39	Watch
	1.62	2.35
	1.69	2.31	Watch
	1.62	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.57)	2.35 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
59.1%

Flavio Cobolli
40.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Flavio Cobolli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	0%	81.2%

Tommy Paul - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Cobolli will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cobolli: 69.5% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Paul (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Cobolli (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cobolli (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 24. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 10.

Paul is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cobolli has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paul will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 60.45%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.26	Alexander Zverev - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Vallejo	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Tommy Paul - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Learner Tien - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Valentin Royer - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWLW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Cincinnati
19.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Alexander Blockx - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Flavio Cobolli - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Flavio Cobolli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
12.08.24	Flavio Cobolli - Tommy Paul	2:1

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