Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 7, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Monastir 7 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Toufik Sahtali		Luca Castagnola

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Toufik Sahtali
45.6%

Luca Castagnola
54.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.9%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toufik Sahtali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toufik Sahtali's form might have worsened.

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Castagnola's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toufik Sahtali than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+1%)

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sahtali will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Castagnola will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castagnola (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Sahtali is ranked ATP: 705. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 670.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toufik Sahtali
ITF Tournaments
26.02.26	Toufik Sahtali - Liam Branger	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Reda Bennani - Toufik Sahtali	Bennani R. retired ✺
13.02.26	Eliakim Coulibaly - Toufik Sahtali	2:0 ✺
12.02.26	Toufik Sahtali - John Echeverria	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Toufik Sahtali - Alessandro Barbieri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 W?LWW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
26.02.26	Isaac Becroft - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Matteo Gribaldo - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.02.26	Luca Castagnola - Jacopo Bilardo	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.01.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLL

Toufik Sahtali - Luca Castagnola