Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 6, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 February 2026, Wednesday


	Daniil Ostapenkov		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	1.47	2.71
	1.59	2.15	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.46	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)	2.45 ↑ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Daniil Ostapenkov
62%

Luca Castagnola
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Ostapenkov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Ostapenkov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castagnola could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Daniil Ostapenkov - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castagnola (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 719. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 674.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ostapenkov is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Ostapenkov
ATP Challenger
18.01.26	Radu Albot - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.01.26	Alexandr Binda - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
16.01.26	Maxwell McKennon - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Aleksandre Bakshi	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Aleksandre Bakshi - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWL
- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
01.02.26	Luca Castagnola - Jacopo Bilardo	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.01.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Luca Castagnola - Massimo Giunta	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Luca Castagnola - Max Basing	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Luca Castagnola - Denis Constantin Spiridon	Spiridon D. C. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWL?

Daniil Ostapenkov - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide