Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maia 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Tristan Boyer		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.10	1.65
	2.20	1.63
	2.17	1.61	Watch
	2.20	1.64
	2.15	1.63	Watch
	2.25	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.84)	1.61 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tristan Boyer
42.4%

Vilius Gaubas
57.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tristan Boyer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tristan Boyer's form might have worsened.

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vilius Gaubas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan Boyer than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tristan Boyer, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vilius Gaubas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Tristan Boyer - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: Vilius Gaubas will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Boyer is ranked ATP: 209., and Gaubas is ranked ATP: 141..

In recent outings, Boyer has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Gaubas is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Boyer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Gaubas is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Gaubas in today's match, at odds of 1.56.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Boyer has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Tristan Boyer - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tristan Boyer
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Tristan Boyer - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Zsombor Piros - Tristan Boyer	2:1 ✺
25.09.26	Tristan Boyer - Timo Legout	1:2 ✺
24.09.26	Tristan Boyer - Sebastian Gorzny	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Tristan Boyer - Spencer Johnson	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Kimmer Coppejans - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
10.10.26	Elmer Moller - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Vilius Gaubas - Luka Mikrut	2:0 ✺
08.10.26	Vilius Gaubas - Duje Ajdukovic	2:1 ✺
05.10.26	Vilius Gaubas - Joao Domingues	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
21.05.25	Tristan Boyer - Vilius Gaubas	0:2

Tristan Boyer - Vilius Gaubas