Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Czech Republic	01:00	HBO Max


	Valentin Vacherot		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.63	1.50	Watch
	2.54	1.50
	2.63	1.49
	2.70	1.55
	2.53	1.55	Watch
	2.50	1.54
	2.51	1.54	Watch
	2.60	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.62)	1.52 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Vacherot
37.1%

Francis Tiafoe
62.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vacherot will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Tiafoe (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Vacherot is ranked ATP: 23. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12.

Recent performances by Vacherot have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tiafoe is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vacherot may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Tiafoe will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Kamil Majchrzak	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Valentin Vacherot - Aleksandar Kovacevic	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Daniel Vallejo - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Valentin Vacherot - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
22.07.26	Quentin Halys - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Basel
29.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Rafael Jodar	✺

Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe