Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Valentin Vacherot		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.63	1.50	Watch
	2.54	1.50
	2.63	1.49
	2.70	1.55
	2.53	1.55	Watch
	2.50	1.54
	2.51	1.54	Watch
	2.60	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.62)	1.52 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Vacherot
37.1%

Francis Tiafoe
62.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vacherot will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Tiafoe (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Vacherot is ranked ATP: 23. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12.

Recent performances by Vacherot have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tiafoe is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vacherot may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tiafoe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Tiafoe will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.7%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Kamil Majchrzak	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Valentin Vacherot - Aleksandar Kovacevic	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Daniel Vallejo - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Valentin Vacherot - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
22.07.26	Quentin Halys - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWW

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