Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Arthur Fils		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.10
	1.36	3.05	Watch
	1.37	2.99	Watch
	1.38	3.05
	1.41	3.08	Watch
	1.36	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.46)	3.07 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Fils
69.2%

Francis Tiafoe
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Fils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arthur Fils's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Fils that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fils will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fils (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Fils (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fils (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fils is ranked ATP: 9., and Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 8..

Both players are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Fils may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Fils for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Fils has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Fils - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.32%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Fils
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Arthur Fils - Luca Van Assche	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Arthur Fils - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Arthur Fils - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Fils	3:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Kei Nishikori - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
11.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ben Shelton	1:3 ✺
08.09.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Valentin Vacherot - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
23.08.26	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP Miami
24.03.25	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1

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