Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: MASPALOMAS (SPAIN), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 28 November 2022, Monday


	Valentin Vacherot		Steven Diez

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.56	2.38
	1.54	2.44
	1.55	2.35
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.5	2.45	Watch
	1.52	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.75)	2.41 ↑ (1.94)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Vacherot
61.2%

Steven Diez
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valentin Vacherot's performance.

Steven Diez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Steven Diez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valentin Vacherot that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Steven Diez than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Steven Diez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.7%	0%	78.3%

Valentin Vacherot - Steven Diez Predictions

Users Predictions: Steven Diez will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Vacherot is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Diez is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Diez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Challenger
15.11.22	Valentin Vacherot - Michael Mmoh	0:2 ✺
10.11.22	Valentin Vacherot - Vasek Pospisil	0:2 ✺
08.11.22	Michael Geerts - Valentin Vacherot	1:2 ✺
25.10.22	Valentin Vacherot - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
12.10.22	Juncheng Shang - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLL
- Steven Diez
ITF Tournaments
09.11.22	Steven Diez - Dan Alexandru Tomescu	Diez S. retired ✺
23.10.22	Steven Diez - Oriol Roca Batalla	0:2 ✺
22.10.22	Alejandro Moro Canas - Steven Diez	1:2 ✺
21.10.22	Javier Barranco Cosano - Steven Diez	0:2 ✺
20.10.22	Xavi Matas Ortega - Steven Diez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 ?LWWW

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