Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Santa Cruz 2 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Valerio Aboian		Franco Roncadelli

	1	2
			Watch
	2.5	1.45	Watch
	2.63	1.43	Watch
	2.55	1.51
	2.56	1.45	Watch
	2.5	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (3.03)	1.46 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valerio Aboian
36.4%

Franco Roncadelli
63.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.4%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

72%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valerio Aboian has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valerio Aboian's performance.

Franco Roncadelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Franco Roncadelli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valerio Aboian than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valerio Aboian that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Franco Roncadelli than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Franco Roncadelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Valerio Aboian - Franco Roncadelli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Aboian is ranked ATP: 347., and Roncadelli is ranked ATP: 265..

In recent outings, Aboian has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Roncadelli is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Roncadelli may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Roncadelli holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Aboian has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valerio Aboian
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Valerio Aboian	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Valerio Aboian - Matias Franco Descotte	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Valerio Aboian - Julian Cundom	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLWWW
- Franco Roncadelli
ATP Challenger
06.10.26	Franco Roncadelli - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Guido Ivan Justo - Franco Roncadelli	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Franco Roncadelli - Pedro Boscardin Dias	1:2 ✺
22.09.26	Gonzalo Bueno - Franco Roncadelli	Canceled ✺
22.09.26	Bruno Fernandez - Franco Roncadelli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLL?W

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
04.04.25	Franco Roncadelli - Valerio Aboian	1:2
04.11.22	Franco Roncadelli - Valerio Aboian	2:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valerio Aboian
ATP Challenger
31.10.26	Valerio Aboian - Hugo Dellien	✺

Valerio Aboian - Franco Roncadelli