Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cali, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cali 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Valerio Aboian		Matias Soto

	1	2
			Watch
	2.07	1.72	Watch
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	1.95	1.85
	1.60	2.17	Watch
	1.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.19)	1.87 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valerio Aboian
49.7%

Matias Soto
50.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.1%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valerio Aboian has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valerio Aboian's performance.

Matias Soto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matias Soto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valerio Aboian than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matias Soto than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Valerio Aboian - Matias Soto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Aboian is ranked ATP: 340., and Soto is ranked ATP: 265..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Soto could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Soto is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Aboian has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Valerio Aboian - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.06%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valerio Aboian
ATP Challenger
21.10.26	Facundo Mena - Valerio Aboian	1:2 ✺
13.10.26	Valerio Aboian - Franco Roncadelli	1:2 ✺
05.10.26	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Valerio Aboian	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLW
- Matias Soto
ATP Challenger
20.10.26	Matias Soto - Samuel Heredia	2:1 ✺
06.10.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Matias Soto - Lautaro Midon	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Matias Soto - Vitaliy Sachko	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
27.03.25	Matias Soto - Valerio Aboian	2:1
ITF Tournaments
14.12.23	Matias Soto - Valerio Aboian	1:2

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