Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday


	Vilius Gaubas		Andrea Pellegrino

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
	1.57	2.5
	1.53	2.48	Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.31	Watch
	1.54	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.78)	2.35 ↑ (1.95)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
60.2%

Andrea Pellegrino
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilius Gaubas's performance.

Andrea Pellegrino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrea Pellegrino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vilius Gaubas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrea Pellegrino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Vilius Gaubas - Andrea Pellegrino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Pellegrino will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaubas: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Gaubas (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vilius Gaubas will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaubas (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 149. Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 237.

Gaubas is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Pellegrino is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gaubas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gaubas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Gaubas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
23.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Oleg Prihodko	2:0 ✺
22.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Khumoun Sultanov	2:1 ✺
11.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Sebastian Ofner - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW
- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
23.04.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Remy Bertola	2:1 ✺
22.04.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Jacopo Vasami	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Andrea Pellegrino - William Mirarchi	Canceled ✺
03.04.25	Vitaliy Sachko - Andrea Pellegrino	Sachko V. walkover ✺
02.04.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Duje Ajdukovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WW??W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.10.24	Andrea Pellegrino - Vilius Gaubas	2:0
23.04.24	Andrea Pellegrino - Vilius Gaubas	0:2

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