Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday


	Sebastian Ofner		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.59	2.21	Watch
	1.57	2.35	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.61	2.23	Watch
	1.59	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.7)	2.22 ↑ (2.04)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
58.1%

Vilius Gaubas
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Ofner that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vilius Gaubas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Sebastian Ofner - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ofner will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Gaubas will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaubas: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Ofner (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Gaubas (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 133. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 149.

Recent matches Ofner is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gaubas in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Gaubas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ofner won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Last Results with these Odds

Vilius Gaubas - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.38%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
08.04.25	Billy Harris - Sebastian Ofner	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
03.04.25	Javier Barranco Cosano - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
01.04.25	Adrian Andreev - Sebastian Ofner	Andreev A. retired ✺
28.03.25	Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Ofner	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLW?L
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
08.04.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Pol Martin Tiffon - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
03.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Arthur Gea	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Ofner	2:0

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