Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday


	Vilius Gaubas		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.7	1.4	Watch
	2.93	1.39	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.89	1.38	Watch
	2.7	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.7)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
32.7%

Marin Cilic
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Marin Cilic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Vilius Gaubas - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Cilic will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cilic: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaubas (votes: 2 - 40%). Cilic (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 149. Cilic is ranked ATP: 117.

Gaubas in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Cilic is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cilic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Cilic will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Cilic to win the game is with odds 1.39.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
10.04.25	Sebastian Ofner - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Pol Martin Tiffon - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW
- Marin Cilic
ATP Challenger
10.04.25	Marco Trungelliti - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
02.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Marin Cilic - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Marin Cilic - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWW

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