Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday


	Vit Kopriva		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.75	1.46	Watch
	2.76	1.51
	2.71	1.45	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.71	1.47	Watch
	2.75	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (3.17)	1.46 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vit Kopriva
34.6%

Sebastian Baez
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

70.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vit Kopriva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vit Kopriva than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vit Kopriva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Vit Kopriva - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Kopriva will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Baez will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kopriva: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kopriva (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baez (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kopriva is ranked ATP: 92. Baez is ranked ATP: 33.

Kopriva is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Baez is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Baez is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kopriva won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vit Kopriva
ATP Roma
07.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Nishesh Basavareddy	2:0 ✺
05.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Dalibor Svrcina	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Hady Habib	0:2 ✺
01.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
15.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Bucharest
06.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.05.21	Vit Kopriva - Sebastian Baez	2:1
ITF Tournaments
02.10.20	Vit Kopriva - Sebastian Baez	0:2

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