Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Tomas Machac		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.68	2.15	Watch
	1.69	2.29
	1.66	2.17	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.7	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.76)	2.2 ↑ (2.03)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
56.7%

Sebastian Baez
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	0%	41.2%

Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Machac will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Baez will win (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 53. Baez is ranked ATP: 65.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Machac won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Tomas Machac - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 53.5%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Tomas Machac - Jannik Sinner	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Daniel Altmaier - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
02.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Corentin Moutet - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWLL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
03.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1
Davis Cup World Group
05.03.22	Sebastian Baez - Tomas Machac	Canceled

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