Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Yokkaichi, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 27 March 2026, Friday


	Yasutaka Uchiyama		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.46	2.55
	1.46	2.9
	1.43	2.61	Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.43	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.37)	2.64 ↓ (2.83)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yasutaka Uchiyama
64.5%

Hayato Matsuoka
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yasutaka Uchiyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yasutaka Uchiyama than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Yasutaka Uchiyama - Hayato Matsuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Uchiyama will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Matsuoka will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uchiyama: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Uchiyama is ranked ATP: 308. Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 376.

Recent performances by Uchiyama have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Matsuoka is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Matsuoka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Uchiyama could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yasutaka Uchiyama
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Fajing Sun - Yasutaka Uchiyama	0:2 ✺
25.03.26	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Dan Added	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Maximus Jones - Yasutaka Uchiyama	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Zach Stephens - Yasutaka Uchiyama	Canceled ✺
10.02.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWW?L
- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Soon Woo Kwon	Kwon S. Retired ✺
26.03.26	James McCabe - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Ognjen Milic	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Daniil Ostapenkov	Canceled ✺
02.03.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Muzammil Murtaza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 ?WW?W

Yasutaka Uchiyama - Hayato Matsuoka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide