Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Yosuke Watanuki		Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.04	1.7
	2.09	1.71	Watch
	2	1.73
	2.02	1.81	Watch
	1.94	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.87)	1.74 ↓ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
46.1%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yosuke Watanuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	0%	43.7%

Yosuke Watanuki - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Watanuki will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Budkov Kjaer will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watanuki: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Watanuki (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Budkov Kjaer (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Watanuki is ranked ATP: 161. Budkov Kjaer is ranked ATP: 135.

Watanuki is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Budkov Kjaer's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.87%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Challenger
03.01.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Mitchell Krueger	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
14.11.25	Chun Hsin Tseng - Yosuke Watanuki	1:2 ✺
13.11.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Hugo Grenier	2:0 ✺
12.11.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Frederico Ferreira Silva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWW
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
ATP Challenger
04.01.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
ATP Next Gen Finals
20.12.25	Alexander Blockx - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	3:0 ✺
19.12.25	Learner Tien - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	3:1 ✺
18.12.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Rafael Jodar	3:1 ✺
17.12.25	Martin Landaluce - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLWW

Yosuke Watanuki - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide