Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sapporo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday


	Yuki Mochizuki		Chase Ferguson

	1	2
			Watch
	1.87	1.80
	2	1.68	Watch
	1.97	1.85
	1.84	1.61	Watch
	1.68	2.15
	1.91	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2)	1.81 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuki Mochizuki
49%

Chase Ferguson
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuki Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Chase Ferguson has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuki Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chase Ferguson than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Yuki Mochizuki - Chase Ferguson Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 664. Ferguson is ranked ATP: 646.

Mochizuki is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferguson has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mochizuki won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuki Mochizuki
ITF Tournaments
07.09.26	Makoto Ochi - Yuki Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
25.08.26	Kasidit Samrej - Yuki Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Yuki Mochizuki - Hiromasa Koyama	0:2 ✺
12.08.26	Yuki Mochizuki - Fanming Meng	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Matthew Dellavedova - Yuki Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLL
- Chase Ferguson
ITF Tournaments
07.09.26	Riku Takahata - Chase Ferguson	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Chase Ferguson	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Yusuke Takahashi - Chase Ferguson	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Rigele Te - Chase Ferguson	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Chase Ferguson - Fumin Jiang	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
13.07.26	Chase Ferguson - Yuki Mochizuki	2:0

Yuki Mochizuki - Chase Ferguson: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide