Match Info

Campeonato Nacional - Round 14

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Castêlo da Maia		Gondomar

	1	2
	1.45	2.45
	1.42	2.61	Watch
	1.43	2.54
	1.53	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.34)	2.48 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castêlo da Maia
62.9%

Gondomar
37.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castêlo da Maia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castêlo da Maia's form might have worsened.

Gondomar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gondomar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castêlo da Maia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gondomar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castêlo da Maia won 4.

Castêlo da Maia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gondomar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Castêlo da Maia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Castêlo da Maia has had a series of home games.

In this match, Castêlo da Maia is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Castêlo da Maia won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:6. (average 2.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Castêlo da Maia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
1	Gondomar	1	1	0	3:1	3
9	Castelo Maia GC	0	0	0	0:0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castêlo da Maia GC
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
21.12.25	Castêlo da Maia - Madalena	0:3 ✺
20.12.25	Castêlo da Maia - Santo Tirso	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Benfica - Castêlo da Maia	3:0 ✺
06.12.25	Castêlo da Maia - Leixões	0:3 ✺
01.12.25	Castêlo da Maia - Vitoria Guimarães	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWLLL
- ALA Gondomar
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
03.01.26	Gondomar - Santo Tirso	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Benfica - Gondomar	3:0 ✺
20.12.25	Gondomar - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Gondomar - Leixões	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	SC Espinho - Gondomar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Campeonato Nacional Volleyball
02.11.25	Gondomar - Castêlo da Maia	3:2
05.04.25	Gondomar - Castêlo da Maia	0:3
29.03.25	Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar	3:0
05.01.25	Gondomar - Castêlo da Maia	0:3
19.10.24	Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar	3:0
25.11.23	Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar	3:2
01.11.22	Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar	3:1

Castêlo da Maia - Gondomar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide