Match Info

NFL - Round 5

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday

Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Finland	Ruutu+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Arena 4
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN, Sky Sports Main Event
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
International	NFL Game Pass


	Jacksonville Jaguars		Kansas City Chiefs

	1	2
	2.7	1.49	Watch
	2.5	1.55
	2.56	1.48	Watch
	2.66	1.54
	3.65	1.27	Watch
	2.65	1.5
	2.49	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.55)	1.48 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacksonville Jaguars
35%

Kansas City Chiefs
65%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacksonville Jaguars has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Kansas City Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacksonville Jaguars than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jacksonville Jaguars, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kansas City Chiefs than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kansas City Chiefs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.2%	0%	47.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars - Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Jacksonville will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Kansas City will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jacksonville: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jacksonville (votes: 3 - 50%). Kansas City (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5, OT - Kansas City (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5, OT - Jacksonville (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Jacksonville (votes: 4 - 50%). Kansas City (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 7)
10:58, Kelce T. (Touchdown),
10:58, Butker H. (Extra Point),
2nd Quarter (7 - 7)
04:16, Mahomes P. (Touchdown),
04:16, Butker H. (Extra Point),
12:22, Washington P. (Touchdown),
12:22, Little C. (Extra Point),
3rd Quarter (14 - 0)
06:20, Lawrence T. (Touchdown),
06:20, Little C. (Extra Point),
12:41, Lloyd D. (Touchdown),
12:41, Little C. (Extra Point),
4th Quarter (10 - 14)
02:40, Hunt K. (Touchdown),
02:40, Butker H. (Extra Point),
06:48, Little C. (Field Goal),
13:15, Hunt K. (Touchdown),
13:15, Butker H. (Extra Point),
14:37, Lawrence T. (Touchdown),
14:37, Little C. (Extra Point),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jacksonville won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Kansas City might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Jacksonville: Hodges C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Jacksonville: Brown M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Jacksonville won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 128:201. (average 16:25.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jacksonville won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 63:98. (average 15.8:24.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL
28.09.25	San Francisco 49ers - Jacksonville Jaguars	21:26 ✺
21.09.25	Jacksonville Jaguars - Houston Texans	17:10 ✺
14.09.25	Cincinnati Bengals - Jacksonville Jaguars	31:27 ✺
07.09.25	Jacksonville Jaguars - Carolina Panthers	26:10 ✺
23.08.25	Miami Dolphins - Jacksonville Jaguars	14:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLWL
- Kansas City Chiefs
NFL
28.09.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens	37:20 ✺
21.09.25	New York Giants - Kansas City Chiefs	9:22 ✺
14.09.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Philadelphia Eagles	17:20 ✺
05.09.25	Los Angeles Chargers - Kansas City Chiefs	27:21 ✺
22.08.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Chicago Bears	27:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
10.08.24	Jacksonville Jaguars - Kansas City Chiefs	26:13
17.09.23	Jacksonville Jaguars - Kansas City Chiefs	9:17
21.01.23	Kansas City Chiefs - Jacksonville Jaguars	27:20
13.11.22	Kansas City Chiefs - Jacksonville Jaguars	27:17
08.09.19	Jacksonville Jaguars - Kansas City Chiefs	26:40
07.10.18	Kansas City Chiefs - Jacksonville Jaguars	30:14
06.11.16	Kansas City Chiefs - Jacksonville Jaguars	19:14

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