Match Info

USA: NFL - ROUND 6

Date: 15 October 2023, Sunday


	Las Vegas Raiders		New England Patriots

	1	2
	1.67	2.3	Watch
	1.67	2.25
	1.66	2.28	Watch
	1.67	2.26
	1.65	2.36
	1.67	2.3
	1.71	2.17
	1.61	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.83)	2.26 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 41.50

The most likely Handicap: (0)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Network on TV: CBS

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Raiders
57.6%

New England Patriots
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Las Vegas Raiders's performance.

New England Patriots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and New England Patriots might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Vegas Raiders than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Las Vegas Raiders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New England Patriots than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that New England Patriots could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Las Vegas Raiders - New England Patriots Predictions

Users Predictions: Las Vegas Raiders will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:21

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

Recent matches Las Vegas is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

New England is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Las Vegas will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in New England: Gonzalez C. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Las Vegas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 90-115.

Including matches at home between the teams Las Vegas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 61-63.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Raiders
NFL
09.10.23	Las Vegas Raiders - Green Bay Packers	17:13 ✺
01.10.23	Los Angeles Chargers - Las Vegas Raiders	24:17 ✺
24.09.23	Las Vegas Raiders - Pittsburgh Steelers	18:23 ✺
17.09.23	Buffalo Bills - Las Vegas Raiders	38:10 ✺
10.09.23	Denver Broncos - Las Vegas Raiders	16:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLLW
- New England Patriots
NFL
08.10.23	New England Patriots - New Orleans Saints	0:34 ✺
01.10.23	Dallas Cowboys - New England Patriots	38:3 ✺
24.09.23	New York Jets - New England Patriots	10:15 ✺
17.09.23	New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins	17:24 ✺
10.09.23	New England Patriots - Philadelphia Eagles	20:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
18.12.22	Las Vegas Raiders - New England Patriots	30:24
26.08.22	Las Vegas Raiders - New England Patriots	23:6
27.09.20	New England Patriots - Las Vegas Raiders	36:20
19.11.17	Las Vegas Raiders - New England Patriots	8:33
21.09.14	New England Patriots - Las Vegas Raiders	16:9

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