Match Info

NFL - Round 4

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
International	NFL Game Pass


	New England Patriots		Carolina Panthers

	1	2
	1.4	3.05	Watch
	1.38	2.96	Watch
	1.43	3.01
	1.61	2.25	Watch
	1.4	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.4)	2.86 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New England Patriots
66.5%

Carolina Panthers
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.3%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New England Patriots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Carolina Panthers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New England Patriots than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carolina Panthers than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

New England Patriots - Carolina Panthers Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. New England will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Carolina will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for New England: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carolina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5, OT - Carolina (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carolina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (7 - 6)
04:09, Tremble T. (Touchdown),
04:09, Fitzgerald R. (Missed Extra Point),
09:26, Jones M. (Touchdown),
09:26, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
2nd Quarter (21 - 0)
00:06, Maye D. (Touchdown),
00:06, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
05:01, Fitzgerald R. (Missed Field Goal),
09:12, Henderson T. (Touchdown),
09:12, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
13:03, Gibson A. (Touchdown),
13:03, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
3rd Quarter (7 - 0)
04:43, Henry H. (Touchdown),
04:43, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
4th Quarter (7 - 7)
00:47, Hollins M. (Touchdown),
00:47, Borregales A. (Extra Point),
13:04, Evans M. (Touchdown),
13:04, Fitzgerald R. (Extra Point),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New England won 4.

New England has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carolina has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, New England is a strong favorite.

There are questionable in New England: Mapu M. (Neck Injury) Moses M. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Carolina: Ekwonu I. (Illness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, New England won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 201:144. (average 20.1:14.4).

Including home matches between the teams, New England won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 107:56. (average 21.4:11.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New England Patriots
NFL
21.09.25	New England Patriots - Pittsburgh Steelers	14:21 ✺
14.09.25	Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots	27:33 ✺
07.09.25	New England Patriots - Las Vegas Raiders	13:20 ✺
21.08.25	New York Giants - New England Patriots	42:10 ✺
16.08.25	Minnesota Vikings - New England Patriots	12:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLLW
- Carolina Panthers
NFL
21.09.25	Carolina Panthers - Atlanta Falcons	30:0 ✺
14.09.25	Arizona Cardinals - Carolina Panthers	27:22 ✺
07.09.25	Jacksonville Jaguars - Carolina Panthers	26:10 ✺
21.08.25	Carolina Panthers - Pittsburgh Steelers	10:19 ✺
16.08.25	Houston Texans - Carolina Panthers	20:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
08.08.24	New England Patriots - Carolina Panthers	17:3
19.08.22	New England Patriots - Carolina Panthers	20:10
07.11.21	Carolina Panthers - New England Patriots	6:24
22.08.19	New England Patriots - Carolina Panthers	10:3
24.08.18	Carolina Panthers - New England Patriots	25:14
01.10.17	New England Patriots - Carolina Panthers	30:33
26.08.16	Carolina Panthers - New England Patriots	17:19

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