Match Info

NCAA

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday


	Troy Trojans		Arkansas State Red Wolves

	1	2
	1.3	3.65
	1.29	3.49
	1.41	2.78	Watch
	1.27	3.55
	1.33	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.41)	3.33 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troy Trojans
71.6%

Arkansas State Red Wolves
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troy Trojans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Troy Trojans's performance.

Arkansas State Red Wolves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arkansas State Red Wolves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troy Trojans than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arkansas State Red Wolves than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 17)
05:37, Fortenberry T. (Touchdown),
05:37, van Andel C. (Extra Point),
06:42, Summers H. (Touchdown),
07:42, van Andel C. (Extra Point),
12:02, van Andel C. (Field Goal),
2nd Quarter (3 - 0)
14:39, Renfroe S. (Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (0 - 3)
05:39, van Andel C. (Field Goal),
4th Quarter (7 - 3)
01:58, Kilcrease T. (Touchdown),
01:58, Renfroe S. (Extra Point),
11:22, van Andel C. (Field Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troy won 3.

Troy is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arkansas State's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arkansas State may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Troy is considered a favorite.

We predict that Troy will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Troy won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 300:258. (average 30:25.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Troy won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 117:129. (average 29.3:32.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troy Trojans football
NCAA College Football
25.10.25	Troy Trojans - Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin` Cajuns	35:23 ✺
18.10.25	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - Troy Trojans	14:37 ✺
11.10.25	Texas State Bobcats - Troy Trojans	41:48 OT ✺
04.10.25	Troy Trojans - South Alabama Jaguars	31:24 OT ✺
20.09.25	Buffalo Bulls - Troy Trojans	17:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWW
- Arkansas State Red Wolves football
NCAA College Football
25.10.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Georgia Southern Eagles	34:24 ✺
14.10.25	South Alabama Jaguars - Arkansas State Red Wolves	14:15 ✺
04.10.25	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Texas State Bobcats	31:30 ✺
27.09.25	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - Arkansas State Red Wolves	28:16 ✺
20.09.25	Kennesaw State Owls - Arkansas State Red Wolves	28:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Football
26.10.24	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	34:31
07.10.23	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	37:3
26.11.22	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	19:48
31.10.20	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	10:38
28.09.19	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	43:50
02.12.17	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Troy Trojans	25:32
17.11.16	Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves	3:35

Troy Trojans - Arkansas State Red Wolves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide