Match Info

AFL Women - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Brighton Homes Arena (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	Brisbane Lions		Port Adelaide Power

	1	X	2
	1.62		2.3
	1.60	50.00	2.25
	1.58		2.18
	1.62		2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.65)	12.5 ↓ (50)	2.25 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 84.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
54.3%

Draw
7%

Port Adelaide Power
38.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.1%

1.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

1.2%

64.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Port Adelaide Power has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brisbane Lions that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Adelaide Power than the current prediction. (+25.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Port Adelaide Power could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Port Adelaide will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 45:40

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (12 - 3)
2nd Quarter (7 - 6)
3rd Quarter (6 - 8)
4th Quarter (9 - 1)

Preview

Brisbane has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Port Adelaide has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Brisbane is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Port Adelaide in today's match, at odds of 2.25.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 138:59 (averaging 69:29.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Brisbane against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 62:33 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
11	Port Adelaide W	10	4	0	6	319:405	78.77	16
14	Brisbane Lions W	10	3	0	7	394:439	89.75	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions Women
AFL Women
10.10.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	65:40 ✺
03.10.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	20:40 ✺
27.09.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	37:23 ✺
20.09.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	30:39 ✺
12.09.26	West Coast Eagles - Brisbane Lions	46:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Port Adelaide Power Women
AFL Women
10.10.26	Port Adelaide Power - West Coast Eagles	26:22 ✺
03.10.26	Port Adelaide Power - Adelaide Crows	36:22 ✺
25.09.26	Western Bulldogs - Port Adelaide Power	62:49 ✺
19.09.26	Port Adelaide Power - Sydney Swans	27:41 ✺
12.09.26	Melbourne Demons - Port Adelaide Power	74:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
11.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	62:33
08.09.23	Port Adelaide Power - Brisbane Lions	26:76

Upcoming Matches