Match Info

AFL Women - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Brighton Homes Arena (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Brisbane Lions		Gold Coast Suns

	1	X	2
	1.4		3
	1.52	50.00	2.40
	1.42		2.55
	1.45		2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)	12.5 ↓ (50)	2.66 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 89.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-38)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
60.3%

Draw
7%

Gold Coast Suns
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.5%

1.8%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

0.9%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Lions's form might have worsened.

Gold Coast Suns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-24.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brisbane Lions that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+25.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gold Coast Suns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 64:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (13 - 9)
2nd Quarter (1 - 7)
3rd Quarter (6 - 2)
4th Quarter (0 - 22)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 5.

Recent results have been tough for Brisbane (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gold Coast is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Brisbane is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Gold Coast in today's match, at odds of 2.78.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Brisbane has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 444:119 (averaging 63.4:17 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Brisbane against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 191:39 goals (averaging 63.7:13 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
5	Gold Coast Suns W	10	7	0	3	493:355	138.87	28
14	Brisbane Lions W	10	3	0	7	394:439	89.75	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions Women
AFL Women
27.09.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	37:23 ✺
20.09.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	30:39 ✺
12.09.26	West Coast Eagles - Brisbane Lions	46:41 ✺
05.09.26	Brisbane Lions - Greater Western Sydney Giants	55:24 ✺
29.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	89:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Gold Coast Suns Women
AFL Women
27.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	69:39 ✺
19.09.26	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	10:51 ✺
12.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	62:32 ✺
05.09.26	Port Adelaide Power - Gold Coast Suns	14:17 ✺
30.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Geelong Cats	57:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
04.10.25	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	15:83
12.10.24	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	44:28
14.10.23	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	21:57
10.09.22	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	82:9
17.02.22	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	16:85
06.02.21	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	65:2
22.02.20	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	28:28

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