Match Info

AFL Women - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Victoria Park (Melbourne)


	Collingwood Magpies		Melbourne Demons

	1	X	2
	15		1.02
	8		1.02
	9.05		1.03
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.68 ↑ (10)	↓	1.02 ↑ (1.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 91.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-36)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Collingwood Magpies
8.7%

Melbourne Demons
91.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

9.1%

0.9%

90%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:64

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (2 - 10)
2nd Quarter (8 - 19)
3rd Quarter (9 - 6)
4th Quarter (2 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Collingwood (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Melbourne is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Collingwood may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Melbourne has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Melbourne holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Collingwood has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 258:338 (averaging 32.3:42.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Collingwood against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 142:167 goals (averaging 28.4:33.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
3	Melbourne Demons W	10	8	0	2	631:356	177.25	32
16	Collingwood Magpies W	10	1	0	9	315:556	56.65	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies Women
AFL Women
26.09.26	Collingwood Magpies - Greater Western Sydney Giants	34:25 ✺
18.09.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	49:90 ✺
12.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	62:32 ✺
06.09.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	68:29 ✺
30.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	26:54 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLL
- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
25.09.26	Melbourne Demons - North Melbourne Kangaroos	34:65 ✺
18.09.26	Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues	58:24 ✺
12.09.26	Melbourne Demons - Port Adelaide Power	74:23 ✺
06.09.26	West Coast Eagles - Melbourne Demons	44:81 ✺
29.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	89:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
30.08.25	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	33:37
01.11.24	Melbourne Demons - Collingwood Magpies	74:27
01.09.23	Melbourne Demons - Collingwood Magpies	73:31
27.02.21	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	49:14
28.02.20	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	26:46
09.02.19	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	9:26
24.02.18	Melbourne Demons - Collingwood Magpies	24:58

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