Match Info

AFL Women - Round 10

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Victoria Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 4


	Collingwood Magpies		Richmond Tigers

	1	2
	3	1.4
	2.65	1.42
	2.75	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.15)	1.42 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 77.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Collingwood Magpies
33.6%

Richmond Tigers
66.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

83.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Collingwood Magpies's form might have worsened.

Richmond Tigers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Richmond Tigers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (-16.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Collingwood Magpies that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Richmond Tigers than the current prediction. (+16.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Richmond Tigers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:42

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (7 - 26)
2nd Quarter (7 - 2)
3rd Quarter (7 - 6)
4th Quarter (12 - 12)

Preview

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Collingwood may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Richmond will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 130:163. (average 32.5:40.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Collingwood won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 72:86. (average 36:43).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies Women
AFL Women
12.10.25	St Kilda Saints - Collingwood Magpies	35:12 ✺
05.10.25	West Coast Eagles - Collingwood Magpies	62:17 ✺
26.09.25	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	65:8 ✺
19.09.25	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	30:39 ✺
12.09.25	Collingwood Magpies - Sydney Swans	43:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LLLLW
- Richmond Tigers Women
AFL Women
11.10.25	Richmond Tigers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	14:50 ✺
04.10.25	Richmond Tigers - Adelaide Crows	58:47 ✺
28.09.25	Brisbane Lions - Richmond Tigers	54:20 ✺
21.09.25	St Kilda Saints - Richmond Tigers	43:36 ✺
13.09.25	Richmond Tigers - Geelong Cats	29:59 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
05.10.24	Richmond Tigers - Collingwood Magpies	46:10
05.11.23	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	25:77
11.03.22	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	47:9
13.02.21	Richmond Tigers - Collingwood Magpies	31:48

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Collingwood Magpies Women
AFL Women
23.10.26	Port Adelaide Power - Collingwood Magpies	✺
- Richmond Tigers Women
AFL Women
24.10.26	Gold Coast Suns - Richmond Tigers	✺

Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide