Match Info

AFL Women - Round 9

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: RSEA Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	St Kilda Saints		Collingwood Magpies

	1	2
	3.1	1.38
	2.75	1.38
	2.7	1.38
	2.85	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.32)	1.39 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 80.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Kilda Saints
32.7%

Collingwood Magpies
67.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.2%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St Kilda Saints's form might have worsened.

Collingwood Magpies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Collingwood Magpies's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Collingwood Magpies, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

St Kilda Saints - Collingwood Magpies Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Collingwood will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Collingwood (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:43

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (3 - 1)
2nd Quarter (2 - 16)
3rd Quarter (28 - 6)
4th Quarter (6 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 2.

St Kilda is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Collingwood has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Collingwood is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, St Kilda has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 143:183 (averaging 23.8:30.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for St Kilda against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 116:83 goals (averaging 38.7:27.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
16	Collingwood Magpies W	10	1	0	9	315:556	56.65	4
18	St Kilda W	10	1	0	9	264:585	45.13	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Kilda Saints Women
AFL Women
03.10.26	Western Bulldogs - St Kilda Saints	31:1 ✺
27.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	69:39 ✺
20.09.26	St Kilda Saints - West Coast Eagles	25:36 ✺
12.09.26	Richmond Tigers - St Kilda Saints	58:43 ✺
04.09.26	St Kilda Saints - North Melbourne Kangaroos	7:99 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Collingwood Magpies Women
AFL Women
04.10.26	Collingwood Magpies - Melbourne Demons	21:42 ✺
26.09.26	Collingwood Magpies - Greater Western Sydney Giants	34:25 ✺
18.09.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	49:90 ✺
12.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	62:32 ✺
06.09.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	68:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
12.10.25	St Kilda Saints - Collingwood Magpies	35:12
24.09.23	St Kilda Saints - Collingwood Magpies	47:35
01.10.22	St Kilda Saints - Collingwood Magpies	34:36
14.01.22	Collingwood Magpies - St Kilda Saints	41:14
20.03.21	Collingwood Magpies - St Kilda Saints	59:13
22.03.20	Collingwood Magpies - St Kilda Saints	Canceled

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