Match Info

AFL Women - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Casey Fields (Cranbourne East)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 4


	Melbourne Demons		Sydney Swans

	1	2
	1.22	4.35
	1.34	2.95
	1.36	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.65)	3.47 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 86.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Demons
72.6%

Sydney Swans
27.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

84.1%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Demons's performance.

Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sydney Swans might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Demons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sydney Swans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 49:37

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (13 - 18)
2nd Quarter (26 - 2)
3rd Quarter (20 - 1)
4th Quarter (6 - 0)

Preview

Melbourne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sydney is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sydney may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melbourne is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
12.10.25	Fremantle Dockers - Melbourne Demons	40:35 ✺
03.10.25	Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers	36:22 ✺
25.09.25	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	93:6 ✺
20.09.25	Melbourne Demons - West Coast Eagles	74:23 ✺
13.09.25	Port Adelaide Power - Melbourne Demons	43:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWWL
- Sydney Swans Women
AFL Women
11.10.25	Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues	76:37 ✺
04.10.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Sydney Swans	88:20 ✺
28.09.25	Adelaide Crows - Sydney Swans	41:39 ✺
20.09.25	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	42:49 ✺
12.09.25	Collingwood Magpies - Sydney Swans	43:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
24.10.26	Western Bulldogs - Melbourne Demons	✺
- Sydney Swans Women
AFL Women
24.10.26	Sydney Swans - West Coast Eagles	✺

Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide