Match Info

AFL Women - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Henson Park (Marrickville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 8
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	Sydney Swans		Carlton Blues

	1	X	2
	2.75		1.45
	2.6		1.42
	2.61		1.43
	2.7		1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2)	↓	1.44 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 89.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney Swans
35%

Carlton Blues
65%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.8%

1.8%

52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

1.3%

70.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sydney Swans's form might have worsened.

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlton Blues's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlton Blues could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Carlton will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 44:47

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (9 - 27)
2nd Quarter (7 - 9)
3rd Quarter (6 - 10)
4th Quarter (10 - 13)

Preview

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Sydney may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Carlton holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Carlton in today's match, at odds of 1.55.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Sydney has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 115:81 (averaging 57.5:40.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sydney against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 76:37 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
6	Carlton Blues W	10	7	0	3	476:358	132.96	28
7	Sydney Swans W	10	7	0	3	491:435	112.87	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Swans Women
AFL Women
03.10.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Sydney Swans	71:16 ✺
27.09.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	37:23 ✺
19.09.26	Port Adelaide Power - Sydney Swans	27:41 ✺
13.09.26	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	87:56 ✺
04.09.26	Western Bulldogs - Sydney Swans	60:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWL
- Carlton Blues Women
AFL Women
01.10.26	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	36:24 ✺
25.09.26	Carlton Blues - Richmond Tigers	76:21 ✺
18.09.26	Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues	58:24 ✺
13.09.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Carlton Blues	33:23 ✺
06.09.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	68:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
11.10.25	Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues	76:37
29.09.23	Carlton Blues - Sydney Swans	44:39

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