Match Info

MLB

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	MLB.TV


	Boston Red Sox		Houston Astros

	1	2
	1.54	2.55	Watch
	1.6	2.4
	1.58	2.37
	1.58	2.64
			Watch
	1.53	2.45	Watch
	1.6	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.7)	2.49 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 8.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boston Red Sox
61.3%

Houston Astros
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston Red Sox has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Houston Astros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boston Red Sox than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Houston Astros than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Boston will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Houston will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boston: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Houston (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 5:3

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Lineups

Batters
16. Duran J.	1. Correa C.
40. Contreras W.	44. Alvarez Y.
19. Anthony R.	15. Paredes I.
52. Abreu W.	8. Walker C.
32. Monasterio A.	27. Altuve J.
11. Mayer M.	0. Matthews B.
3. Rafaela C.	11. Smith C.
75. Narvaez C.	2. Vazquez C.
5. Durbin C.	37. Harris D.
Pitchers
55. Suarez R.	67. Bolton C.
Coaches
. Tracy C.	. Espada J.

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 13 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boston won 2.

Boston has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Houston has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Houston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Houston has had a series of away games.

Boston could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Boston will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boston won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 84:102. (average 4.2:5.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boston won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:56. (average 3.8:5.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston Red Sox
MLB
02.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1 ✺
01.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1 ✺
29.04.26	Toronto Blue Jays - Boston Red Sox	8:1 ✺
28.04.26	Toronto Blue Jays - Boston Red Sox	3:0 ✺
27.04.26	Toronto Blue Jays - Boston Red Sox	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLW
- Houston Astros
MLB
02.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1 ✺
01.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1 ✺
30.04.26	Baltimore Orioles - Houston Astros	10:3 ✺
30.04.26	Baltimore Orioles - Houston Astros	10:3 ✺
28.04.26	Baltimore Orioles - Houston Astros	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLB
02.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1
01.05.26	Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros	3:1
01.04.26	Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox	6:4
31.03.26	Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox	9:2
30.03.26	Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox	8:1
13.08.25	Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox	4:1
12.08.25	Houston Astros - Boston Red Sox	1:14

Boston Red Sox - Houston Astros: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide