Match Info

French Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: LDLC Arena (Lyon)


	ASVEL Basket		AS Monaco Basket

	1	2
	1.8	1.87
	1.86	1.86
	1.8	2.02
	1.77	1.94	Watch
	1.82	1.92
	1.76	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.03)	1.92 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ASVEL Basket
51.6%

AS Monaco Basket
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ASVEL Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ASVEL Basket's performance.

AS Monaco Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AS Monaco Basket might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ASVEL Basket than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ASVEL Basket that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AS Monaco Basket than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AS Monaco Basket could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.8%	0%	91.2%

ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 173.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AS Monaco Basket will win (31 of 34 users predict this - 91.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.65% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AS Monaco Basket will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Angola B.	4. Blossomgame J.
00. Eboua P.	55. James M. (C)
3. Harrison S.	6. Michineau D.
23. Lighty D. (C)	26. Nedovic N.
24. Ndiaye M.	10. Theis D.
Substitutes
8. Ajinca M.	23. Begarin J.
7. Heurtel T.	33. Mirotic N.
11. Jackson E.	0. Okobo E.
10. Massa B.	32. Strazel M.
94. Traore A.	22. Tarpey T.
32. Vautier B.
30. Watson G.
Coaches
. Poupet P.	. Spanoulis V.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ASVEL won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Monaco has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, ASVEL won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 1558:1720. (average 77.9:86).

Including home matches between the teams, ASVEL won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 784:845. (average 78.4:84.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASVEL Basket
French LNB
14.02.26	Nancy - ASVEL Basket	82:88 ✺
Euroleague
12.02.26	Valencia - ASVEL Basket	82:67 ✺
French LNB
08.02.26	ASVEL Basket - Nanterre	64:75 ✺
Euroleague
06.02.26	ASVEL Basket - Olimpia Milano	76:77 ✺
04.02.26	Virtus Bologna - ASVEL Basket	70:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLLW
- AS Monaco Basket
French LNB
15.02.26	Nanterre - AS Monaco Basket	76:81 ✺
Euroleague
13.02.26	AS Monaco Basket - Baskonia	102:92 ✺
French LNB
08.02.26	Élan Sportif Chalonnais - AS Monaco Basket	78:92 ✺
Euroleague
05.02.26	Bayern München - AS Monaco Basket	91:82 ✺
03.02.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - AS Monaco Basket	104:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
19.11.25	ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket	52:84
French LNB
19.10.25	ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket	98:102
10.06.25	AS Monaco Basket - ASVEL Basket	91:86
08.06.25	AS Monaco Basket - ASVEL Basket	74:64
05.06.25	ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket	77:94
03.06.25	ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket	94:74
Euroleague
10.04.25	ASVEL Basket - AS Monaco Basket	78:83

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