Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 6

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Adelaide Arena (Adelaide)


	Adelaide Lightning		Geelong Venom

	1	2
	3.05	1.32
	2.66	1.42
	2.56	1.40	Watch
	2.69	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.56)	1.4 (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 153.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide Lightning
33.7%

Geelong Venom
66.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

67%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Geelong Venom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide Lightning than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Venom than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 74:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Brazel T.	54. Holmes M.
20. Feagin S.	10. Potter G.
4. Loughridge D.	2. Rotunno L.
11. Pupuke-Robati S.	9. Sharp A.
7. Talbot S. (C)	4. Shelley J. (C)
Substitutes
15. Fejo J.	5. Brett E.
13. Freer J.	12. Clinch-Hoycard M.
10. Freer M.	23. Heal S.
6. Porter R.	11. Mole T.
31. Strawbridge A.	7. Taylor G.
1. Tofaeono E.
Coaches
. Mitchell K.	. Lucas C.

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Geelong Venom may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Geelong Venom has had a series of home games.

In this match, Geelong Venom is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 288:321. (average 72:80.3).

Including home match between the teams, Adelaide won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 87:70.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide Lightning
Australian WNBL
18.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Bendigo Spirit	74:82 ✺
15.11.25	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	103:69 ✺
08.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames	88:71 ✺
31.10.25	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	73:65 ✺
25.10.25	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	110:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL
- Geelong Venom
Australian WNBL
14.11.25	Geelong Venom - Southside Flyers	66:54 ✺
11.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	88:69 ✺
07.11.25	Geelong Venom - Townsville Fire	61:86 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	76:77 ✺
28.10.25	Bendigo Spirit - Geelong Venom	62:55 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
25.10.25	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	110:76
15.02.25	Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom	87:70
07.12.24	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	69:59
16.11.24	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	72:66 OT

Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide