Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 4

Date: 11 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Geelong Arena (Geelong)


	Geelong Venom		Perth Lynx

	1	2
	3.05	1.3
	3.09	1.31
	2.09	1.59	Watch
	2.93	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.09)	1.4 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 157.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Geelong Venom
33.3%

Perth Lynx
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Venom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Geelong Venom's form might have worsened.

Perth Lynx has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Perth Lynx's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Venom than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Geelong Venom, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perth Lynx than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Perth Lynx, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong Venom (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 165.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 77:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
54. Holmes M.	25. Atwell A.
10. Potter G.	8. Ciabattoni A.
2. Rotunno L.	24. Maley A. (C)
9. Sharp A. (C)	11. Turner B.
4. Shelley J.	5. Wilson A.
Substitutes
5. Brett E.	42. Fotu A.
12. Clinch-Hoycard M.	2. Gorman S.
1. Dimarco T.	10. Graham T.
11. Mole T.	20. Morris Y.
22. Stevens P.	9. Waite K.
7. Taylor G.
Coaches
. Lucas C.	. Petrik R.

Preview

Geelong United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Perth is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Perth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Geelong United has had a series of home games.

Perth will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Geelong United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 301:348. (average 75.3:87).

Including home matches between the teams, Geelong United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 153:157. (average 76.5:78.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Venom
Australian WNBL
07.11.25	Geelong Venom - Townsville Fire	61:86 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	76:77 ✺
28.10.25	Bendigo Spirit - Geelong Venom	62:55 ✺
25.10.25	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	110:76 ✺
18.10.25	Geelong Venom - Sydney Flames	77:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Perth Lynx
Australian WNBL
09.11.25	Perth Lynx - Southside Flyers	79:76 ✺
04.11.25	Perth Lynx - Townsville Fire	70:79 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	76:77 ✺
26.10.25	Perth Lynx - Sydney Flames	73:67 ✺
19.10.25	Adelaide Lightning - Perth Lynx	72:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
01.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	76:77
07.02.25	Perth Lynx - Geelong Venom	95:77
11.01.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	77:80
23.12.24	Perth Lynx - Geelong Venom	96:71

Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide