Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 5

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Townsville Entertainment Centre (Townsville)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2


	Townsville Fire		Adelaide Lightning

	1	2
	1.07	6.6
	1.05	7.03
	1.08	5.51	Watch
	1.09	6.7
	1.07	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.07 (1.07)	6.67 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 158.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Townsville Fire
86.1%

Adelaide Lightning
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

87.5%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Townsville Fire has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Adelaide Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 155.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:72

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ellis A.	41. Brazel T.
12. Fowler A.	20. Feagin S.
9. Froling A. (C)	4. Loughridge D.
1. Sowah M.	11. Pupuke-Robati S.
7. Woods C.	7. Talbot S. (C)
Substitutes
21. Anderson P.	15. Fejo J.
15. Cox L.	13. Freer J.
16. Crichton D.	10. Freer M.
11. Forster C.	6. Porter R.
33. Olsen L.	31. Strawbridge A.
25. Van Es C.	1. Tofaeono E.
Coaches
. Seebohm S.	. Mitchell K.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Townsville won 4.

Townsville is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Townsville has had a series of away games.

In this match, Townsville is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Townsville won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 1372:1368. (average 68.6:68.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Townsville won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 730:737. (average 73:73.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Townsville Fire
Australian WNBL
07.11.25	Geelong Venom - Townsville Fire	61:86 ✺
04.11.25	Perth Lynx - Townsville Fire	70:79 ✺
31.10.25	Southside Flyers - Townsville Fire	89:83 ✺
25.10.25	Canberra Capitals - Townsville Fire	70:105 ✺
18.10.25	Bendigo Spirit - Townsville Fire	66:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWW
- Adelaide Lightning
Australian WNBL
08.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Sydney Flames	88:71 ✺
31.10.25	Adelaide Lightning - Canberra Capitals	73:65 ✺
25.10.25	Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning	110:76 ✺
19.10.25	Adelaide Lightning - Perth Lynx	72:75 ✺
15.02.25	Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom	87:70 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
05.02.25	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	63:90
29.11.24	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	68:69
23.11.24	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	53:47
20.01.24	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	75:90
29.11.23	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	67:61
23.11.23	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	51:74
20.01.23	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	92:63

Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide