Match Info

NCAA

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	Arkansas State Red Wolves		Bowling Green Falcons

	1	2
	1.63	2.35
	1.6	2.22
	1.66	2.29
	1.58	2.27	Watch
	1.63	2.25
	1.59	2.24
	1.64	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.71)	2.27 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 154.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arkansas State Red Wolves
58.4%

Bowling Green Falcons
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arkansas State Red Wolves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Bowling Green Falcons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arkansas State Red Wolves than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arkansas State Red Wolves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bowling Green Falcons than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bowling Green Falcons could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arkansas State Red Wolves - Bowling Green Falcons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:75

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Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Bowling Green may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arkansas State won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 75:81.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arkansas State Red Wolves basketball
NCAA College Basketball
04.02.26	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - Arkansas State Red Wolves	66:70 ✺
31.01.26	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Marshall Thundering Herd	61:70 ✺
28.01.26	Arkansas State Red Wolves - Old Dominion Monarchs	71:75 ✺
24.01.26	Georgia State Panthers - Arkansas State Red Wolves	82:81 ✺
22.01.26	Georgia Southern Eagles - Arkansas State Red Wolves	68:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLLW
- Bowling Green Falcons basketball
NCAA College Basketball
03.02.26	Bowling Green Falcons - Ball State Cardinals	77:52 ✺
31.01.26	Central Michigan Chippewas - Bowling Green Falcons	62:59 ✺
27.01.26	Bowling Green Falcons - Buffalo Bulls	78:89 ✺
24.01.26	Toledo Rockets - Bowling Green Falcons	73:72 ✺
20.01.26	Western Michigan Broncos - Bowling Green Falcons	54:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
11.11.23	Bowling Green Falcons - Arkansas State Red Wolves	81:75

Arkansas State Red Wolves - Bowling Green Falcons: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide