Match Info

NBB

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Oscar Zelaya Gymnasium (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Miranda S. (Bra)


	Botafogo		São Paulo

	1	2
	2.6	1.45
	2.05	1.7
	2.35	1.5
	2.17	1.63
	1.91	1.8
	2.34	1.55	Watch
	2.35	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.71)	1.59 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 157.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo
41.4%

São Paulo
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Botafogo's form might have worsened.

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Botafogo - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 78:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
8. Derick Machado	3. Bennett C.
6. Fellipe Paulino	0. Curnell T.
7. Matheusinho B.	5. Fischer R.
3. Queiros F.	2. Oliveira J.
1. Thomas F.	7. Paulo
Substitutes
19. Alcassa A.	22. Ansaloni R.
81. Gustavao	40. Bresolin A.
11. Mateus	32. Duarte I.
12. Mathias T.	16. Igor Andrade
13. Motta F.	14. Miguel Santos
14. Pecos A.	33. Miller M.
17. Rodrigues
Coaches
. Figueredo S.	. Guerra J.

Preview

Botafogo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

São Paulo has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently São Paulo have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 377:407 (average 75.4:81.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 161:164 (average 80.5:82).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo Basketball
Brazilian NBB
03.04.25	Botafogo - Paulistano	64:85 ✺
29.03.25	Botafogo - Flamengo	85:92 ✺
17.03.25	Brasília Basquete - Botafogo	94:71 ✺
13.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo	80:66 ✺
03.03.25	Botafogo - São José dos Campos	71:68 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLLW
- São Paulo FC Basketball
Brazilian NBB
03.04.25	Flamengo - São Paulo	105:86 ✺
28.03.25	São Paulo - Pato	65:69 ✺
15.03.25	União Corinthians - São Paulo	95:74 ✺
13.03.25	Caxias do Sul - São Paulo	76:65 ✺
08.03.25	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	88:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian NBB
15.12.24	São Paulo - Botafogo	82:71
25.03.24	Botafogo - São Paulo	83:79
04.12.23	São Paulo - Botafogo	78:77
18.01.20	São Paulo - Botafogo	83:68
12.11.19	Botafogo - São Paulo	78:85

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