Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Winners stage

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Welcome (Montevideo)


	Defensor Sporting		Aguada

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.6
	2.24	1.56	Watch
	2.3	1.53
	2.27	1.56	Watch
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.6)	1.55 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
40.1%

Aguada
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Aguada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Defensor Sporting - Aguada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 85:89

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. Colmenares N.	5. Clark E.
1. Rudd V.	3. Osimani J.
77. Soto F. (C)	13. Santiso J. (C)
3. Weaver E.	23. Santos L.
13. Zubiaurre M.	8. Sims D.
Substitutes
9. Antunes M.	21. Barragan T.
45. Bianchi M.	1. Fernandez M.
7. Cuervo M.	14. Gentile A.
27. De Leon F.	6. Pereiras F.
23. MacMullen M.	10. Rodriguez J.
00. Metzger T.	9. Traversa B.
15. Terra F.	24. Zuvich A.
Coaches
. Brea G.	. Vadell D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Aguada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 1637:1755. (average 81.9:87.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 873:884. (average 87.3:88.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Aguada - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.36%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
14.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Malvín	79:80 OT ✺
11.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	92:84 OT ✺
30.03.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Defensor Sporting	80:84 ✺
26.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional	68:80 ✺
19.03.26	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	97:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWLL
- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
25.04.26	Aguada - Nacional	101:82 ✺
17.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	103:95 ✺
14.04.26	Aguada - Hebraica y Macabi	101:100 ✺
11.04.26	Nacional - Aguada	101:82 ✺
26.03.26	Aguada - Malvín	88:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
19.03.26	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	97:81
19.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	98:92
24.01.26	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	90:76
30.03.25	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	83:75
10.01.25	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	85:89
05.11.24	Aguada - Defensor Sporting	96:84
23.04.24	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	91:85

Defensor Sporting - Aguada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide