Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - First round - Round 5

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Unibet Arena (Tallinn) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	18:00	DAZN
Finland	19:00	DAZN
Slovenia	18:00	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	18:00	DAZN


	Estonia		Slovenia

	1	2
	1.45	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.54
	1.43	2.7	Watch
	1.43	2.65
	1.46	2.57	Watch
	1.41	2.6
	1.45	2.66	Watch
	1.48	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.8)	2.63 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 166.00

The most likely Handicap: (0)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Estonia
64.5%

Slovenia
35.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estonia's performance.

Slovenia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Slovenia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Estonia - Slovenia Predictions

Users Predictions: Slovenia will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:83

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Joesaar J. KK Bosna	15. Hrovat G. Dijon
34. Konontsuk A. Bursaspor Durmazlar	17. Kroflic U. Mega Basket
15. Kotsar M. Yokohama	8. Muric E. Ilirija
2. Raieste S. Murcia	24. Omic A. Merkezefendi
16. Vaaks S.	5. Samar Z. Gran Canaria
Substitutes
23. Bockler L. Krosno	20. Cerkvenik M. Cedevita Olimpija
13. Hermet K. Dijon	21. Ciani S.
35. Ilver M. Tartu Ulikool	25. Hrabar V. Saski Baskonia
25. Riismaa J. Derthona Tortona	22. Joksimovic S. Saski Baskonia
18. Suurorg K. Trefl Sopot	4. Padjen M. Ilirija
9. Tass M. SK Legia Warszawa	12. Radovic R. Cedevita Olimpija
3. Treier K. Basket Napoli	19. Tomazic T. Ilirija
Coaches
. Rannula H.	. Sekulic A.

Preview

Slovenia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Estonia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Slovenia: Doncic L. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Estonia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 256:275. (average 85.3:91.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estonia basketball
World Championship Basketball
01.03.26	Estonia - Sweden	69:79 ✺
27.02.26	Sweden - Estonia	77:88 ✺
01.12.25	Estonia - Czech Republic	92:97 ✺
28.11.25	Slovenia - Estonia	93:94 OT ✺
EuroBasket
03.09.25	Estonia - Portugal	65:68 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWL
- Slovenia basketball
Friendly International Basketball
27.06.26	Slovenia - Italy	83:86 ✺
World Championship Basketball
01.03.26	Czech Republic - Slovenia	84:86 ✺
27.02.26	Slovenia - Czech Republic	99:59 ✺
01.12.25	Sweden - Slovenia	83:94 ✺
28.11.25	Slovenia - Estonia	93:94 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Basketball
28.11.25	Slovenia - Estonia	93:94 OT
24.02.23	Estonia - Slovenia	79:78
25.08.22	Slovenia - Estonia	104:83

Estonia - Slovenia