Match Info

NBL

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Pettigrew Green Arena (Napier)


	Hawkes Bay Hawks		Otago Nuggets

	1	2
			Watch
	1.76	1.88	Watch
	1.81	1.93
	1.74	1.91	Watch
	1.75	1.95
	1.73	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.8)	1.93 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 187.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawkes Bay Hawks
52.3%

Otago Nuggets
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawkes Bay Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Otago Nuggets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawkes Bay Hawks than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Otago Nuggets than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:93

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
9. Ball J.	24. Henn M.
11. Grida D.	13. Louis A.
88. Jeter C.	18. McKenzie Z.
23. McLaughlin J.	12. Rusbatch E. (C)
22. Rasmussen K.	5. Tuach B.
Substitutes
12. Allan I.	9. Bezett H.
28. Burton A. (C)	4. Chisholm O.
2. Casson B.	43. Hunt T.
24. Eagle E.	21. Martin C.
15. Fergusson T.	8. Miller-Jose I.
3. Kara K.	10. Smiler C.
7. Murphy J.	1. Thata-Paese T.
Coaches
. Lopez W.	. Sparrow J.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawkes Bay Hawks won 2.

Hawkes Bay Hawks has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Otago Nuggets is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Otago Nuggets may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hawkes Bay Hawks has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hawkes Bay Hawks won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1001:1022. (average 91:92.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawkes Bay Hawks won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 474:449. (average 94.8:89.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawkes Bay Hawks
New Zealand NBL
02.05.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Auckland Tuatara	91:93 ✺
23.04.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Canterbury Rams	94:103 ✺
17.04.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Manawatu Jets	102:109 ✺
14.04.26	Taranaki Airs - Hawkes Bay Hawks	93:84 ✺
11.04.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Tauranga Whai	95:101 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Otago Nuggets
New Zealand NBL
02.05.26	Canterbury Rams - Otago Nuggets	87:72 ✺
01.05.26	Otago Nuggets - Manawatu Jets	99:96 ✺
24.04.26	Otago Nuggets - Tauranga Whai	92:81 ✺
15.04.26	Otago Nuggets - Nelson Giants	86:77 ✺
10.04.26	Southland Sharks - Otago Nuggets	68:95 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NBL
24.05.25	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	92:98
21.03.25	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	86:93
08.06.24	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	108:86
11.05.24	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	116:105
24.06.23	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	87:94
26.05.23	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	94:95
10.08.22	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	91:80

Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide