Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - First round - Round 5

Date: 2 July 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Laugardalsholl (Reykjavík) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	21:45	DAZN
Finland	22:45	DAZN
Sweden	21:45	DAZN


	Iceland		Italy

	1	2
	2.60	1.45	Watch
	2.54	1.48
	2.50	1.50	Watch
	2.47	1.49
	2.57	1.46	Watch
	2.40	1.46
	2.50	1.50
	2.60	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.67)	1.48 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 164.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Iceland
37%

Italy
63%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.6%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Iceland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Iceland - Italy Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Italy will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
10. Fridriksson E. Tenerife	24. Ferrari F. Virtus Bologna
6. Gudmundsson J.	1. Mannion N. Milano
15. Hermannsson M. (C) Alba Berlin	38. Rossato R. Reggiana
32. Hlinason T. Bilbao	16. Tessitori A. (C) Venezia
14. Palsson K.	7. Tonut S. Milano
Substitutes
11. Atlason A. KR Basket Reykjavik	45. Akele N. Virtus Bologna
16. Gudmundsson B. Armann	25. Baldasso T. Derthona Tortona
5. Henningsson H. Stjarnan	4. Candi L. Venezia
41. Jonsson B. Stjarnan	48. Emejuru G.
12. Jonsson K. Valur	19. Procida G. Real Madrid
9. Thorbjarnarson T. KR Basket Reykjavik	17. Ricci G. Milano
34. Thrastarson S. Zamora	18. Spagnolo M. Saski Baskonia
Coaches
. Pedersen C.	. Ramondino M.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Iceland won 2.

Italy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Italy could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Iceland won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 552:603. (average 78.9:86.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iceland basketball
World Championship Basketball
02.03.26	Lithuania - Iceland	99:82 ✺
27.02.26	Iceland - Lithuania	86:85 ✺
30.11.25	Iceland - Great Britain	84:90 ✺
27.11.25	Italy - Iceland	76:81 ✺
EuroBasket
04.09.25	France - Iceland	114:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWLWL
- Italy basketball
Friendly International Basketball
27.06.26	Slovenia - Italy	83:86 ✺
24.06.26	Italy - Croatia	103:91 ✺
World Championship Basketball
02.03.26	Italy - Great Britain	84:75 ✺
27.02.26	Great Britain - Italy	57:93 ✺
30.11.25	Lithuania - Italy	81:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Basketball
27.11.25	Italy - Iceland	76:81
Friendly International Basketball
02.08.25	Italy - Iceland	87:61
EuroBasket
25.11.24	Italy - Iceland	74:81
22.11.24	Iceland - Italy	71:95
World Championship Basketball
27.02.22	Italy - Iceland	95:87
24.02.22	Iceland - Italy	107:105 OT (85:85)
EuroBasket
06.09.15	Iceland - Italy	64:71

Iceland - Italy