Match Info

NBL - Round 4

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: WIN Entertainment Centre (Wollongong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN


	Illawarra Hawks		Tasmania JackJumpers

	1	2
			Watch
	1.75	2.00
	1.82	1.98
	1.71	2.16
	1.79	1.98	Watch
	1.69	2.13
	1.77	2.09	Watch
	1.76	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.89)	2.06 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 189.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Illawarra Hawks
54%

Tasmania JackJumpers
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Illawarra Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Illawarra Hawks's performance.

Tasmania JackJumpers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tasmania JackJumpers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Illawarra Hawks than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tasmania JackJumpers than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Illawarra will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tasmania will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tasmania (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:94

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Lineups


5. Adnam K.	1. Armstrong T.
35. Doyle M.	33. Bannan J.
13. Froling S.	14. Bayles B.
11. Grida D.	12. Gold B.
1. Harvey T.	7. Johnson D.
6. Hickey W.	22. Magnay W.
25. Macdonald F.	11. Marshall N.
44. Maker M.	31. Mathias D.
30. Martin K.	4. Richardson J.
10. McGregor B.	6. Stattmann K.
16. Narkle J.	9. Stoddart N.
24. Patterson L.
9. Swaka W.

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 10th and 2nd in the Promotion - NBL Playoffs - Semi - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Illawarra won 4.

Illawarra is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Tasmania shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Tasmania could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Illawarra has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Illawarra has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1494:1490 (averaging 87.9:87.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Illawarra against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 703:716 goals (averaging 87.9:89.5 per game).

Outrights of Australian NBL for now

Tasmania JackJumpers: 11.38% Illawarra Hawks: 6.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	5	4	1	498:477	0.800
10	Illawarra Hawks	6	1	5	598:646	0.167

Last Results with these Odds

Tasmania JackJumpers - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.22%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Illawarra Hawks
Australian NBL
04.10.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Illawarra Hawks	113:94 ✺
02.10.26	Illawarra Hawks - Adelaide 36ers	114:92 ✺
27.09.26	Sydney Kings - Illawarra Hawks	121:100 ✺
25.09.26	Brisbane Bullets - Illawarra Hawks	103:95 ✺
20.09.26	New Zealand Breakers - Illawarra Hawks	95:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLL
- Tasmania JackJumpers
Australian NBL
03.10.26	Brisbane Bullets - Tasmania JackJumpers	99:109 OT ✺
01.10.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Melbourne United	84:82 ✺
23.09.26	Cairns Taipans - Tasmania JackJumpers	93:87 ✺
21.09.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	96:91 ✺
Club Friendly Basketball
12.09.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Sydney Kings	98:98
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
18.02.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Illawarra Hawks	70:103
24.01.26	Tasmania JackJumpers - Illawarra Hawks	91:101
31.12.25	Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers	92:90
27.09.25	Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers	86:91
30.01.25	Tasmania JackJumpers - Illawarra Hawks	78:102
07.01.25	Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers	89:84
12.10.24	Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers	109:76

Illawarra Hawks - Tasmania JackJumpers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide