Match Info

EuroBasket - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Xiaomi Arena (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	CT sport
Finland	Ruutu+
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hungary	M4 Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	TVP Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
World	Court Side 1891


	Italy		Slovenia

	1	2
	1.71	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.4
	1.7	2.21	Watch
	1.76	2.11
	1.50	2.40	Watch
	1.66	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.46)	2.28 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
58%

Slovenia
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Italy's form might have worsened.

Slovenia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Slovenia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Italy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slovenia than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Slovenia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.5%	0%	86.5%

Italy - Slovenia Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 6 - 12%). Slovenia will win (votes: 44 - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Slovenia: 79% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 173, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Slovenia will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Diouf M. Virtus Bologna	77. Doncic L. (C) Los Angeles Lakers
13. Fontecchio S. Detroit Pistons	15. Hrovat G.
9. Melli N. (C) Fenerbahce	2. Krampelj M. Yalovaspor BK
54. Pajola A. Virtus Bologna	8. Muric E. Forca Lleida
18. Spagnolo M. Alba Berlin	6. Nikolic A. Cedevita Olimpija
Substitutes
45. Akele N. Virtus Bologna	13. Jurkovic R. Krka
8. Gallinari D. Vaqueros de Bayamon	24. Omic A. Buducnost
20. Niang S. Trento	4. Padjen M. Ilirija
19. Procida G. Alba Berlin	7. Prepelic K. Dubai
17. Ricci G. Milano	12. Radovic R. Cedevita Olimpija
33. Spissu M. Zaragoza	23. Scuka L. Braunschweig
15. Thompson D. Anadolu Efes	37. Stergar L. Kortrijk
Coaches
. Pozzecco G.	. Sekulic A.

Preview

Italy is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Slovenia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Italy will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 384:431. (average 76.8:86.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy basketball
EuroBasket
04.09.25	Italy - Cyprus	89:54 ✺
02.09.25	Italy - Spain	67:63 ✺
31.08.25	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Italy	79:96 ✺
30.08.25	Italy - Georgia	78:62 ✺
28.08.25	Greece - Italy	75:66 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWL
- Slovenia basketball
EuroBasket
04.09.25	Israel - Slovenia	96:106 ✺
02.09.25	Iceland - Slovenia	79:87 ✺
31.08.25	Slovenia - Belgium	86:69 ✺
30.08.25	France - Slovenia	103:95 ✺
28.08.25	Slovenia - Poland	95:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Basketball
09.09.23	Italy - Slovenia	85:89
Friendly International Basketball
25.06.22	Italy - Slovenia	71:90
23.08.15	Slovenia - Italy	76:67
EuroBasket
12.09.13	Slovenia - Italy	84:77
Friendly International Basketball
24.08.13	Slovenia - Italy	92:84

Italy - Slovenia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide