Match Info

WNBA - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Michelob Ultra Arena (Las Vegas, NV)


	Las Vegas Aces		Indiana Fever

	1	2
	1.48	2.55	Watch
	1.50	2.65
	1.5	2.55
	1.51	2.72
	1.51	2.48	Watch
	1.47	2.6
	1.5	2.66
	1.5	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.53)	2.6 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Aces
63.4%

Indiana Fever
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Aces has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Indiana Fever has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Vegas Aces than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Las Vegas Aces that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indiana Fever than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Indiana Fever could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Indiana will win (votes: 5 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Indiana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:89

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gray C.	7. Boston A.
24. Loyd J.	22. Clark C.
21. Turner B.	10. Hull L.
22. Wilson A.	0. Mitchell K.
0. Young J.	21. Timpson M.
Coaches
. Hammon B.	. White S.

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 2.

Las Vegas is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Indiana has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Las Vegas holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Las Vegas in today's match, at odds of 1.55.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Las Vegas has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1694:1666 (averaging 84.7:83.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Las Vegas against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 980:931 goals (averaging 89.1:84.6 per game).

Outrights of WNBA for now

Las Vegas Aces W: 10.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Aces
WNBA
29.09.26	Indiana Fever - Las Vegas Aces	99:89 ✺
27.09.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	102:85 ✺
24.09.26	Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces	82:100 ✺
22.09.26	Las Vegas Aces - Los Angeles Sparks	89:79 ✺
20.09.26	Las Vegas Aces - Seattle Storm	98:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWW
- Indiana Fever
WNBA
29.09.26	Indiana Fever - Las Vegas Aces	99:89 ✺
27.09.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	102:85 ✺
24.09.26	Minnesota Lynx - Indiana Fever	86:66 ✺
22.09.26	Indiana Fever - Minnesota Lynx	96:77 ✺
20.09.26	Indiana Fever - Washington Mystics	77:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

WNBA
29.09.26	Indiana Fever - Las Vegas Aces	99:89
27.09.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	102:85
06.08.26	Indiana Fever - Las Vegas Aces	84:86 OT
12.07.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	75:109
05.07.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	68:84
30.09.25	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	107:98 OT
28.09.25	Indiana Fever - Las Vegas Aces	90:83

Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide