Match Info

WNBA

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Michelob Ultra Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	CBS


	Las Vegas Aces		Phoenix Mercury

	1	2
	1.22	4.1	Watch
	1.29	3.70
	1.26	3.7
	1.29	3.97
	1.28	3.56	Watch
	1.25	3.9	Watch
	1.27	3.91
	1.27	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↑ (1.18)	3.82 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 168.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Aces
75.1%

Phoenix Mercury
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

78.1%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Aces has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Phoenix Mercury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Las Vegas will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Phoenix will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:80

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
7. Talbot S.	25. Thomas A.
3. Smith N.	24. Bonner D.
22. Wilson A.	11. Ayayi V.
12. Gray C.	8. Makani M.
0. Young J.	2. Copper K.
Coaches
. Hammon B.	. Tibbetts N.

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ WNBA (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Phoenix may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Las Vegas is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1812:1643. (average 90.6:82.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Las Vegas won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 976:899. (average 88.7:81.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Aces
WNBA
09.07.26	Portland Fire - Las Vegas Aces	80:88 ✺
05.07.26	Las Vegas Aces - Indiana Fever	68:84 ✺
03.07.26	Las Vegas Aces - Chicago Sky	98:90 AET ✺
30.06.26	New York Liberty - Las Vegas Aces	93:85 ✺
28.06.26	Chicago Sky - Las Vegas Aces	99:107 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLW
- Phoenix Mercury
WNBA
09.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Indiana Fever	89:92 ✺
07.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Chicago Sky	66:77 ✺
02.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Seattle Storm	90:67 ✺
27.06.26	Toronto Tempo - Phoenix Mercury	80:89 ✺
24.06.26	Indiana Fever - Phoenix Mercury	109:111 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

WNBA
17.06.26	Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces	76:86
09.05.26	Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury	66:99
10.10.25	Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces	86:97
08.10.25	Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces	88:90
05.10.25	Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury	91:78
03.10.25	Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury	89:86
21.08.25	Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury	83:61

Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide