Match Info

NBA

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3
World	NBA Global League Pass


	Miami Heat		Atlanta Hawks

	1	2
	1.26	4	Watch
	1.3	3.5
	1.28	4.03
	1.27	3.76	Watch
	1.29	3.6	Watch
	1.29	4.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (3.07)	3.84 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 241.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami Heat
75%

Atlanta Hawks
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

69.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+44.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miami Heat's performance.

Atlanta Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-44.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlanta Hawks might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-41.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Miami Heat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta Hawks than the current prediction. (+41.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlanta Hawks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Miami: 77.8% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Miami (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 237.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +6.5, OT - Atlanta (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Atlanta (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 123:119

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Wiggins A.	10. Risacher Z.
13. Adebayo B.	14. Newell A.
7. Ware K.	13. Bradley T.
14. Herro T.	24. Kispert C.
45. Mitchell D.	2. Wallace K.
Coaches
. Spoelstra E.	. Snyder Q.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Miami is Qualified for NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miami won 2.

Miami has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlanta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Miami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Miami: Herro T. (Foot Injury) Jovic N. (Ankle Injury) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There will not play in Atlanta: Landale J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Miami: Mitchell D. (Shoulder Injury) Powell N. (Groin Injury) Smith D. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Atlanta: Johnson J. (Rest) McCollum C. (Rest) Okongwu O. (Finger Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Miami won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 2312:2237. (average 115.6:111.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1168:1139. (average 116.8:113.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlanta Hawks - the odds 1.37 are the expected chance of winning is 69.14%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami Heat
NBA
10.04.26	Washington Wizards - Miami Heat	152:136 ✺
09.04.26	Toronto Raptors - Miami Heat	128:114 ✺
07.04.26	Toronto Raptors - Miami Heat	121:95 ✺
04.04.26	Miami Heat - Washington Wizards	152:136 ✺
01.04.26	Miami Heat - Boston Celtics	129:147 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Atlanta Hawks
NBA
10.04.26	Atlanta Hawks - Cleveland Cavaliers	124:102 ✺
08.04.26	Cleveland Cavaliers - Atlanta Hawks	122:116 ✺
06.04.26	Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks	105:108 ✺
03.04.26	Brooklyn Nets - Atlanta Hawks	107:141 ✺
01.04.26	Orlando Magic - Atlanta Hawks	101:130 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

NBA
20.02.26	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	97:128
03.02.26	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	115:127
26.12.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	111:126
13.10.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	119:118 OT
NBA Las Vegas Summer League
11.07.25	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	98:105
NBA
18.04.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	114:123 OT
27.03.25	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	122:112

Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide