Match Info

NBA

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	6'eren
World	NBA Global League Pass


	Miami Heat		Houston Rockets

	1	2
	2.15	1.74	Watch
	2.08	1.75
	2.2	1.76
	2.18	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.19	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.43)	1.75 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 225.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami Heat
44.9%

Houston Rockets
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miami Heat's performance.

Houston Rockets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Houston Rockets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Miami Heat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Houston Rockets than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Houston Rockets could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	0%	68.7%

Miami Heat - Houston Rockets Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Houston will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Houston: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2, OT - Miami (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 224.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 112:115

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
9. Larsson P.	17. Eason T.
22. Wiggins A.	7. Durant K.
13. Adebayo B.	28. Sengun A.
14. Herro T.	15. Sheppard R.
45. Mitchell D.	1. Thompson A.
Coaches
. Spoelstra E.	. Udoka I.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miami won 3.

In recent matches, Miami has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Houston is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Houston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Miami has had a series of away games.

Houston will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Miami: Jovic N. (Lower Back Injury) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There will not play in Houston: Adams S. (Ankle Injury) Tate J. (Knee Injury) VanVleet F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Houston: Smith Jr. J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Miami won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 2221:2138. (average 111.1:106.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1133:1069. (average 113.3:106.9).

Outrights of NBA for now

Miami Heat: 2.96% Houston Rockets: 1.79%

Last Results with these Odds

Houston Rockets - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.9%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami Heat
NBA
26.02.26	Philadelphia 76ers - Miami Heat	124:117 ✺
24.02.26	Milwaukee Bucks - Miami Heat	128:117 ✺
21.02.26	Miami Heat - Memphis Grizzlies	136:120 ✺
20.02.26	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	97:128 ✺
11.02.26	New Orleans Pelicans - Miami Heat	111:123 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWW
- Houston Rockets
NBA
26.02.26	Orlando Magic - Houston Rockets	108:113 ✺
25.02.26	Houston Rockets - Sacramento Kings	128:97 ✺
23.02.26	Houston Rockets - Utah Jazz	125:105 ✺
21.02.26	New York Knicks - Houston Rockets	108:106 ✺
19.02.26	Charlotte Hornets - Houston Rockets	101:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

NBA
21.03.25	Miami Heat - Houston Rockets	98:102
29.12.24	Houston Rockets - Miami Heat	100:104
05.04.24	Houston Rockets - Miami Heat	104:119
08.01.24	Miami Heat - Houston Rockets	120:113
20.10.23	Houston Rockets - Miami Heat	110:104
10.02.23	Miami Heat - Houston Rockets	97:95
15.12.22	Houston Rockets - Miami Heat	108:111

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