Match Info

NBA

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Turkey	02:00	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	19:00	ESPN Deportes, MSG 2, NBC
International	23:00	NBA Global League Pass


	Atlanta Hawks		Miami Heat

	1	2
	1.68	2.23	Watch
	1.70	2.18
	1.74	2.12
	1.73	2.27
	1.76	2.17	Watch
	1.68	2.20
	1.75	2.15
	1.70	2.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.56)	2.18 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 242.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlanta Hawks
55.9%

Miami Heat
44.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.7%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlanta Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta Hawks than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Atlanta will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Miami will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlanta: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlanta (votes: 1 - 50%). Miami (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5, OT - Miami (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 242.5, OT - under (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 240.5, OT - over (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlanta (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Miami (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 122:120

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
5. Daniels D.	22. Wiggins A.
1. Johnson J.	7. Antetokounmpo G.
17. Okongwu O.	13. Adebayo B.
7. Alexander-Walker N.	11. Thompson K.
3. McCollum C.	2. Mitchell D.
Coaches
. Snyder Q.	. Spoelstra E.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 2.

In recent outings, Atlanta has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Miami is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Recently, Atlanta has faced a series of away games on the road.

Atlanta is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Atlanta: Gueye M. (Foot Injury) Veesaar H. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Atlanta: Wiggins A. (Contusion).

Doubtful / questionable for Miami: Fontecchio S. (Illness).

Our forecast points to a victory for Atlanta in today's match, at odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2256:2349 (averaging 112.8:117.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlanta against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 1000:1038 goals (averaging 111.1:115.3 per game).

Outrights of NBA for now

Miami Heat: 1.49% Atlanta Hawks: 1.44%

Last Results with these Odds

Atlanta Hawks - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.71%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Miami Heat - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.29%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlanta Hawks
NBA
26.10.26	Houston Rockets - Atlanta Hawks	120:110 ✺
24.10.26	Atlanta Hawks - Houston Rockets	114:121 ✺
23.10.26	Charlotte Hornets - Atlanta Hawks	81:128 ✺
21.10.26	Orlando Magic - Atlanta Hawks	125:132 ✺
16.10.26	Dallas Mavericks - Atlanta Hawks	111:135 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWWW
- Miami Heat
NBA
26.10.26	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	109:113 ✺
24.10.26	Charlotte Hornets - Miami Heat	115:110 ✺
23.10.26	Miami Heat - Detroit Pistons	111:128 ✺
21.10.26	Miami Heat - Minnesota Timberwolves	106:131 ✺
16.10.26	Orlando Magic - Miami Heat	136:115 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NBA
12.04.26	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	143:117
20.02.26	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	97:128
03.02.26	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	115:127
26.12.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	111:126
13.10.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	119:118 OT
NBA Las Vegas Summer League
11.07.25	Miami Heat - Atlanta Hawks	98:105
NBA
18.04.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	114:123 OT

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