Match Info
NBADate: 6 December 2025, SaturdayLocation: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 World | NBA Global League Pass |
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Miami Heat |
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Sacramento Kings |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 241.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)
- The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Miami Heat
75.5% | Sacramento Kings
24.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)Sacramento Kings has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Kings than the current prediction. (+1.5%)Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Sacramento will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Miami: 35.9% – 97.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 239.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -4.5 - Miami (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Miami Heat will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 126:117 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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22.  Wiggins A.
| 10.  DeRozan D.
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13. Adebayo B.
| 13. Murray K.
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7. Ware K.
| 42.  Raynaud M.
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24. Powell N.
| 8. LaVine Z.
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12. Smith D.
| 18. Westbrook R.
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| Coaches |
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. Spoelstra E.
| . Christie D.
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Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miami won 3.Miami has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).Sacramento's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).Miami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Miami is a strong favorite.There will not play in Miami: Herro T.
(Toe Injury)
Rozier T.
(Suspended)There will not play in Sacramento: Sabonis D.
(Knee Injury)There are questionable in Sacramento: Schroder D.
(Hip Injury)In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Miami won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 2098:2072. (average 104.9:103.6).Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 898:862. (average 112.3:107.8).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| NBA | | | 06.01.25 | Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat | 123:118 OT | | 04.11.24 | Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings | 110:111 | | California Classic Basketball | | | 07.07.24 | Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat | 86:102 | | NBA | | | 26.02.24 | Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat | 110:121 | | 31.01.24 | Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings | 115:106 | | California Classic Basketball | | | 05.07.23 | Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat | 95:83 | | NBA | | | 02.11.22 | Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings | 110:107 |
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