Match Info

NBA

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
World	NBA Global League Pass


	Dallas Mavericks		Miami Heat

	1	2
	2.55	1.54	Watch
	2.55	1.5
	2.62	1.55
	2.57	1.56	Watch
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.87	1.49
	2.6	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (1.92)	1.53 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 239.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dallas Mavericks
37%

Miami Heat
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dallas Mavericks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dallas Mavericks's form might have worsened.

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miami Heat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dallas Mavericks than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dallas Mavericks, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Miami Heat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.2%	0%	47.8%

Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Miami will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Miami (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5, OT - Miami (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Miami (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 118:123

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Flagg C.	9. Larsson P.
13. Marshall N.	22. Wiggins A.
3. Davis A.	13. Adebayo B.
00. Christie M.	14. Herro T.
9. Nembhard R.	45. Mitchell D.
Substitutes
30. Cisse M.	0. Fontecchio S.
21. Gafford D.	25. Jakucionis K.
1. Hardy J.	11. Jaquez Jr. J.
16. Martin Ca.	16. Johnson K.
7. Powell D.	5. Jovic N.
5. Russell D.	24. Powell N.
31. Thompson K.	12. Smith D.
10. Williams B.	7. Ware K.
Coaches
. Kidd J.	. Spoelstra E.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 2.

In recent matches, Dallas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Miami is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Dallas has had a series of away games.

Recently, Miami has had a series of home games.

Miami could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Dallas: Exum D. (Knee Injury) Gafford D. (Ankle Injury) Irving K. (Knee Injury) Lively D. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Miami: Johnson K. (Illness) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Dallas: Washington P. J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Miami: Larsson P. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 2102:2101. (average 105.1:105.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1014:1013. (average 101.4:101.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Dallas Mavericks - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 50.13%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Miami Heat - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.87%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dallas Mavericks
NBA
01.12.25	Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks	121:131 ✺
29.11.25	Los Angeles Clippers - Dallas Mavericks	110:114 ✺
28.11.25	Los Angeles Lakers - Dallas Mavericks	129:119 ✺
24.11.25	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	106:102 ✺
22.11.25	Dallas Mavericks - Memphis Grizzlies	96:102 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWLLL
- Miami Heat
NBA
01.12.25	Miami Heat - Los Angeles Clippers	140:123 ✺
29.11.25	Miami Heat - Detroit Pistons	135:138 ✺
26.11.25	Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks	106:103 ✺
24.11.25	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	106:102 ✺
23.11.25	Philadelphia 76ers - Miami Heat	117:127 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NBA
24.11.25	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	106:102
13.02.25	Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat	118:113
24.11.24	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	123:118 OT
NBA Las Vegas Summer League
17.07.24	Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat	79:92
NBA
10.04.24	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	92:111
07.03.24	Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat	114:108
01.04.23	Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks	129:122

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