Match Info

NCAA

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers		Merrimack Warriors

	1	2
	2.1	1.77
	2	1.73
	2.06	1.8
	1.95	1.78	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.1	1.73
	2.05	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.12)	1.77 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 132.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mount St. Marys Mountaineers
46.3%

Merrimack Warriors
53.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mount St. Marys Mountaineers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Merrimack Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mount St. Marys Mountaineers than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merrimack Warriors than the current prediction. (-3%)

Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Merrimack Warriors Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 65:67

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mount St. Marys won 4.

Mount St. Marys has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merrimack is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mount St. Marys may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Merrimack will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Mount St. Marys won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 580:521. (average 64.4:57.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mount St. Marys won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 274:219. (average 68.5:54.8).

Outrights of NCAA College Basketball for now

Merrimack Warriors: 0.22%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mount St. Marys Mountaineers basketball
NCAA College Basketball
01.02.26	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Manhattan Jaspers	72:65 ✺
30.01.26	St. Peters Peacocks - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	66:58 ✺
24.01.26	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Rider Broncs	71:61 ✺
22.01.26	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Quinnipiac Bobcats	62:77 ✺
19.01.26	Niagara Purple Eagles - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	58:68 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW
- Merrimack Warriors basketball
NCAA College Basketball
01.02.26	Merrimack Warriors - Sacred Heart Pioneers	75:58 ✺
24.01.26	Merrimack Warriors - St. Peters Peacocks	67:59 ✺
22.01.26	Iona Gaels - Merrimack Warriors	61:60 ✺
19.01.26	Marist Red Foxes - Merrimack Warriors	55:68 ✺
17.01.26	Merrimack Warriors - Quinnipiac Bobcats	83:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
02.01.26	Merrimack Warriors - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	75:65
14.03.25	Merrimack Warriors - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	55:57
31.01.25	Merrimack Warriors - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	58:66
03.02.22	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Merrimack Warriors	69:53
17.01.22	Merrimack Warriors - Mount St. Marys Mountaineers	50:57
15.01.21	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Merrimack Warriors	63:52
14.01.21	Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Merrimack Warriors	77:57

Mount St. Marys Mountaineers - Merrimack Warriors